Lake Manitoba Narrows

During the last two weeks, many news outlets have covered the fallout related to the electronic break-in and subsequent release of numerous private emails stored at the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. The CRU is one of several storehouses of climatological information on global warming. According to those skeptical of human-induced climate change, the content of some of these emails proves that some climate data was intentionally exaggerated, discarded, or doctored, and dissenting research was quashed to promote an alarmist agenda. Some skeptics have gone so far as to say that the hacked emails confirm that global warming is a hoax.

Climate scientists were quick to counter, saying that the offending emails were taken out of context and that the science behind the phenomenon of global warming remains both secure and legitimate. These scientists state that the studies called into question, which involve the accurate representation of 20th century average global temperatures, have been supported by numerous independent studies and sound methods. This debate continues to play itself out in the press and the blogosphere. Although this debate will have some effect on the subject of this article, I refer you to the articles below (in the section “To Learn More”) rather than rehash what has already been written in other forums.

Amidst the back-and-forth between global warming skeptics and supporters, evidence continues to mount that questions whether polar bears (Ursus maritimus), apex predators in Arctic ecosystems, can survive over the long term. Since I last considered the plight of the polar bear in this space in early 2007, there have been two significant developments. The first involves the decline in Arctic ice coverage over the past three years, and the second involves the official listing of the polar bear as a threatened species in May 2008.

Vanishing ice

Every year with summer heating, part of the Arctic ice melts, and September is the month in which Arctic ice declines to its minimum extent. The years 2007, 2008, and 2009 saw the greatest reductions in Arctic ice coverage. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the average September ice extent declined from nearly 10 million square kilometres (3.9 million square miles) in 1978 to about 5.1 million (roughly 2 million square miles) in 2009. The 2009 figure, the third lowest on record came in just above the figures for the previous two years. During 2007 Arctic ice coverage dove to approximately 4.1 million square kilometres (about 1.6 million square miles), the lowest extent on record. Many climatologists contend that the figures for the most recent three years are not simply aberrations in the trend. The figures likely portend a long period of accelerated melting, and many climatologists predict that before century is over the Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free for part of the year. Some computer models predict that this will happen much sooner, perhaps within 40 years.

Although polar bears occasionally consume plants and animals from terrestrial environments, they largely rely on seals, beluga whales, and other food from the sea. With declining access to their marine hunting grounds, polar bears will face an enormous challenge. Some exceptional individuals may be able to make a living off the tundra, while others will explore Inuit settlements for food, increasing conflicts between polar bears and residents. Inuit communities, also dependent on seals, are already reporting increases in the number of polar bears they encounter. One can imagine that if polar bears are unable to adapt to ice-free conditions, the population, now believed to be somewhere between 20,000 and 25,000 individuals worldwide, will spiral downward. There is evidence that this prediction is beginning to come true. Sea ice loss has been linked directly to population reductions in some of the 19 extant polar bear populations, increased rates of cub mortality, and decreases in adult body weight.

The best chance for their continued survival is the retention of year-round Arctic ice, so an understanding of what is causing the ice to melt is important. Climatologists blame the recent meltoff on the build-up of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere. For most of the Holocene Epoch, the current geological interval we live in, carbon dioxide concentrations lingered between 275 and 285 parts per million by volume (ppmv). Since 1958, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has been tracked on Mauna Loa in Hawaii and plotted on a graph known as the Keeling curve, named after American atmospheric chemist Charles Keeling. Concentrations of this greenhouse gas have soared from 310 ppmv in 1957 nearly 390 ppmv by 2009. Carbon dioxide traps heat derived from incoming sunlight. As concentrations increase, the ability of Earth’s atmosphere to retain the heat energy associated with sunlight increases and thus air temperatures rise. In addition, some of this heat is transferred to the oceans. Warmed ocean currents may travel underneath part the Arctic ice pack and melt surface ice from beneath.

Polar bears and the Endangered Species Act

Most climatologists agree that the solution to this problem lies in reducing the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, a process which will require deep cuts in carbon emissions. In 2008, when the animal was listed as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA), some environmental groups saw this as a way to compel the country to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. After all, under the law, state and federal governments are charged with protecting species under threat. Sometimes drastic steps must be taken to ensure the survival of a threatened or endangered species, since its protection trumps all other activities. For other species, protection might involve the re-routing of roads, the halting of construction projects, and the taking of private property. Fearing that any new construction project that produced carbon emissions would need to pass a type of “polar bear litmus test,” many pro-business groups balked at the idea.

Despite the placement of polar bears on the threatened species list, the legal tools used for other species are not appropriate for this species’ protection. Often, threatened and endangered species are confined to a limited area, so protection means the relatively straightforward step of cordoning off the area. In contrast, the primary threat to polar bears is climate change associated with carbon emissions. In May 2009, Ken Salazar, the secretary for the U.S. Department of the Interior, noted that the department’s powers were insufficient to take on the job of reducing carbon emissions, and thus announced that the Endangered Species Act would not be used to regulate them.

The continued release of carbon dioxide, after all, is not simply an American problem. It is a global one. Even if the Department of the Interior and its various sub-agencies, such as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), had the powers and the personnel to enforce the law in the United States, Arctic ice would continue to melt. U.S. law cannot control carbon emissions increases from other countries, such as India and China. Instead, 200,000 acres of Alaskan coastlands and nearshore waters were designated as critical habitat in October 2009. Granted, since polar bears are terrestrial animals that depend on solid ice, such set-asides will not be much help if nearby ice melts. Nevertheless, the Endangered Species Act requires the assignment of habitat, and the thinking was that such a designation would help protect polar bears from other forms of mortality, such as pollution generated from the gas and oil industries. Placing the polar bear’s critical habitat in the books, however, will not necessarily do away with oil and gas exploration there. At least one existing project will be allowed to continue, and new projects, though subject to review by the USFWS, may be proposed. The 60-day public comment period on this ruling will continue through December 2009, with the final word given on or before June 30, 2010.

In spite of the complexities surrounding this issue, the means to save polar bears from their fate may be at hand. This week, representatives from around the world meet at the 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 15) in Copenhagen, Denmark, to draw up a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol before it expires in 2012. If the delegates are successful in coming up with an effective climate agreement—that is, one that leads to reductions in carbon emissions—the world will take the first step in reducing atmospheric carbon concentrations. It is hoped that with comprehensive climate regulations and buy-in from all the world’s major carbon-emitting nations, atmospheric carbon (and thus its collective ability to warm the atmosphere) will decline, creating the conditions for greater Arctic ice coverage.

Nevertheless, it is likely that the so-called “ClimateGate” scandal—the hacking of the CRU’s email system and what it revealed—will have some effect on the proceedings at the COP 15 conference. Several investigations have recently begun to determine if the climatologists associated with the hacked emails violated rules of ethics in their research. Climate skeptics and others are calling for greater transparency in climate data and the process of research. Ultimately, the ongoing debate will lead to better research and a more informed public. Proper scientific thinking mandates that the debate should occur; however, the timing of the electronic break-in is suspicious, and it may have been designed to distract the world’s attention from the business at hand. It is important to underscore this point: The scientific knowledge of global warming stands on the results of multiple studies from many scientists in several disciplines. It does not rely solely on the research mentioned in the hacked emails. Therefore, we should not linger in discussion too long.

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